Lessons Forgotten?

I had thought of writing an article about this just about a week ago. Now that I am writing it I have even more data supporting my hypothesis.

The weekly jobs data from the US.

Erie feeling about the markets all around. Why does this look exactly like the recession which we have supposedly overcome? Why, despite every single data point suggesting a slowly moving economy, is the market higher? If quantitative easing does indeed happen (I dont know if one can take the interest rates below 0) how is that a good signal for any company when you know no one is going to be out buying?

The stock markets tend to exaggerate the good news and down play the bad ones consistently, over only when the bad news could actually be devastating.

Up until last week my reasons could have been biased because of my expectations of a correction because of my positions in the market. This week I have already booked losses in my positions and yet the feeling has only gotten stronger.


Just some preliminary thoughts to get a discussion started. I have my research partly ready will work on it and publish it later in the week. (busy with some work and studies) Scary as it may sound I think we are headed for a recession again. (by we i mean the US in particular a global slow down in general)


Gopal Balakrishnan